The Democrats lost a Senate seat last night that they have held since 1953, as Scott Brown beat Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election to finish the term that the late Ted Kennedy was elected to in 2006. The big story of this election seems to be the new 59-41 split in the Senate denies the Democrats a “filibuster-proof” supermajortiy. The Democrats in the Senate, however, haven’t been united on hardly anything, so that may not be the long term effect of this election. Does this election mean bad news for the Democrats in November?
It very well may. Special elections generally have low turnout. Indeed, Brown garnered only a few thousand more votes than John McCain did in Massachusetts in 2008, while losing to Obama in a landslide. What this says to me is that the Republicans did a better job of getting out the vote. Fifteen months ago, Americans voted for change, and 1 year into Obama’s presidency, we are still fighting two wars, prisoners are still being held at Guantanamo, and unemployment is still high. If the Democrats can’t unite behind health care reform, they may be in trouble. With Dodd and Dorgan retiring this year, and Harry Reid’s popularity in Nevada waning, the Democrats may lose a seat or two. 41 Democratic seats are not up for grabs this year, so their majority should be safe, but if the healthcare falls through, look for frustrated Democrats to stay home in November, with the Republicans possibly further chipping away at the Democratic Senate majority.