Andrew’s Analytics

President Barack Obama will get to make his mark on the nation’s highest court early into his first term. David Souter announced today that  he will retire when the court goes into recess in June.  Souter has been a reliably left leaning justice since the appointment of Clarence Thomas. He wrote the lead plurality opinion that upheld Roe v. Wade. He voted with the majority to not allow school prayer at a Rhode Island high school graduation, in Lee v. Weisman. He also dissented in Bush v. Gore, voting to continue the pivotal Florida recount in 2000 that gave the White House to George W Bush. 

This was a major disappointment to early conservative supporters.  Souter was George H.W. Bush’s first appointment to the Supreme Court, and his responses during his confirmation hearings were reminiscent of Robert Bork’s answers. Once confirmed to this lifetime position, he drifted to the left, and is now considered one of the most liberal members of the court. 

If former Senator Norm Coleman loses his appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court, with Arlen Specter’s defection from the Republican party, the Democrats will have 60 votes. If they can stay united, Obama will have his choice in what may be a President’s most lasting legacy. This will be the first test of the Democrats new supermajority, and will be an indicator of Obama’s willingness to push through the “change we can believe in” that Obama campaigned on.

Former Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius was the first of 20 Obama appointees to the Department of Health and Human Services to win Senate confirmation yesterday. With worries about swine flu, and a depleted staff, Sebelius will have her work cut out for her as the 9th Secretary of Health and Human Services. Her confirmation went through 65-31, with opponents citing her pro choice stance on abortion as Governor. Sebelius vetoed abortion restrictions several times, stating that ”The United States Supreme Court decisions make clear that any law regulating abortion must contain exceptions for pregnancies which endanger the woman’s life or health. However, SB 389 allows a variety of individuals to seek a court order preventing a woman from obtaining an abortion, even where it may be necessary to save her life. I am concerned that the bill is unconstitutional or even worse, endangers the lives of women.” She also vetoed a bill to allow concealed weapons, opposes capital punishment, and was against the constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriage. How was she elected in Kansas?

Once the swine flu scare subsides, Sebelius will really have to get to work. With the Obama administration putting health care reform as a top priority, Sebelius will play a key role in shaping how that reform takes place. Specter’s defection yesterday will make that fight a little easier, but don’t expect Republicans to go down without a fight. Sebelius is the right person for the job, and should turn out to be a fierce advocate for health reform. For the last 100 years, health care reform has been like the wheather. Everybody always talks about it, but nobody does anything. The political situation will never be better to push through legislation to cover the 50 million uninsured Americans. Let’s hope that the Democratic majority in Congress can use the leverage that they have to finally do something.

Democrats may not need to wait until 2011 to get a filibuster proof majority in the U.S. Senate. Arlen Specter, long considered a very moderate Republican, annnounced today that he will run as a Democrat next year when his fifth term expires. This puts a lot more emphasis on the Minnesota Supreme Court’s pending appeal of the Al Franken victory in last November’s election. Specter, who has broken party ranks earlier this year, when he voted for cloture on Obama’s stimulus package, becomes the Senate’s 59th Democrat, and as early as June Franken may become the 60th. 

This is a brilliant move by Specter, who consistently faces strong opposition in Republican primaries, but easliy wins the general elections. He has relatively strong support from Democrats, and will probably not face much of a challenge in the primary. He will then go on to face a conservative Republican (Pat Toomey looks like the early favorite) in the general election, and win handidly. Specter will need to toe his new party’s line a lot closer in order to court primary voters, but he knows this, and it shouldn’t be an issue.

The announcement probably would’ve benefited the Democrats more  in a month or so, when Franken is finally seated. With the Minnesota election up in the air, one more Democrat makes it more likely that Coleman will be pressured to drag this out even longer. Although most Minnesotans want Coleman to concede, I think this new development means that he will appeal his case to the federal courts.

Of course, just because the Democrats will have the 60 votes needed to override a filibuster, doesn’t mean they will. Harry Reid has proven to be an ineffectual majority leader, andthe Democrats will piss away this great opportunity to enact some real reforms in health care, because they’re Democrats, and that’s what they do. Trying to unite the Democrats is like herding cats, and look for some of the more conservative ones like Bill Nelson or Joe Lieberman to join what will surely be a united minority in filibustering some of Obama’s more bold initiatives. When it’s all said and done, the move is mostly symbolic, except for Specter himself, who really helped his reelection chances today by switching parties.