Andrew’s Analytics

Is the 2008 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota about ready to be decided? If the decision of the three judge panel that is hearing Norm Coleman’s lawsuit stands, it appears that Al Franken will be sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota.  The panel ruled that there are some absentee ballots that may need to be counted. These ballots were erroneously rejected during the initial count, as well as the recount that followed.  The problem for Coleman is that there will be less than 400 ballots added to the recount totals.  These ballots have remained sealed in the absentee ballot envelope since the voter turned it in, meaning the results of these ballots is currently unknown. Franken currently holds a 225 vote lead, which means that Coleman will need to take over three quarters of the newly accepted ballots. Nearly half of the total ballots come from three counties that Franken won handily (Hennepin, Ramsey, and St. Louis). The chances that these ballots contain over 300 votes for Coleman are very slim, but this isn’t the end of the road for Coleman. An appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court is likely, and it is possible that Coleman will take his case to federal court. When it’s all said and done, Franken should come out on top, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for him to be sworn in.

                     vs.        

Kirsten Gillibrand beat Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006, riding a wave that gave Democrats control of the House after 12 years of Republican rule. She won reelection by a landslide in 2008, but her appointment to the Senate opens up this district to a special election on March 31, 2009. Jim Tedisco, the State Assembly minority leader, is on the Republican ticket. Tedisco has been in the Assembly since 1983. His opponent is Democrat Scott Murphy, a businessman and was Deputy Chief of Staff for former Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan.

Most people are looking at this race as an early referendum on Obama’s first 60 days as President. I disagree with this analysis. This is a district that is mostly white, and mostly rural, bordering three New England States. This is hardly a representative sample of our countries population. That being said, watch for the winner to run with that, while the loser downplays any national ramifications.

In early February, Murphy was down by 21 points according to a Public Opinion Strategies poll, but has steadily gained ground, and as of March 26, held a 4 point lead according to Siena Research Institute, still within the margin of error. This one could go either way.

Coming up next, more on the 20th…

Chris Dodd (D, CT)

Republicans Sam Caligiuri and Rob Simmons are going to put a lot of money into knocking off five term incumbent Chris Dodd. They just might do it too. Early polling puts Simmons ahead, or within the margin of error in a matchup against Dodd.  This one’s going to come down to the wire, and we may see an upset in Connecticut.

Kirsten Gillibrand (D, NY)

Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed by New York governor David Patterson to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat until a special election can be held for a permanent replacement.  This special election will be held in conjunction with all of the other mid term elections in 2010.  Gillibrand, a moderate Democrat, may face some serious challenges in the primary.  Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy is considering a run, and early polling puts her ahead of the incumbent in a primary matchup.  It’s early though, and Gillibrand’s incumbent advantage should grow enough by the time the primary comes around.  Congressman Peter King is considering a run for the GOP, but it doesn’t appear that he has the support for a general election.  Gillibrand returns to finish the term that Clinton left.

Judd Gregg (R, NH)

Judd Gregg is part of a dying breed.  He is one of three Republican members of Congress from New England.  The other two are fellow Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins both of Maine.  Gregg has indicated that he will not seek a fourth term, giving the Democrats a good chance to pick up a seat in a region that has trended blue over the last several election cycles.  The list of Republicans going for the seat is long, but the early favorites seem to be former Senator John Sununu, and former Congressman Charlie Bass Congressman Paul Hodes is running on the Democratic side.  Early polling calls this a tossup.  This one will probably be reflect public opinion on President Obama and his policies.

Pat Leahy (D, VT)

Pat Leahy has been in the Senate since 1975.  He’s won his last two elections with over 70% of the vote.  Leahy will win in another landslide.

Coming up next, special election for New York’s 20th Congressional District…

Arlen Specter (R, PA)

Arlen Specter narrowly won the 2004 primary, edging out fellow Republican Pat Toomey.  He went on to win the general election by more than 10 points. Watch for history to repeat itself here, with Specter facing serious challenges in the primary from potential candidates  Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik. If he makes it through the primary, he should have no problem in the general election.

Ted Kaufman (D, DE)

Ted Kaufman was appointed to fill the Senate seat vacated when longtime Senator Joe Biden was promoted to the Vice Presidency. Kaufman will not run in the special election to finish the term he started.  Biden’s son Beau was rumored to be among the possible apointees, but was slated to be deployed to Iraq with the Delaware National Guard.  Biden is considering a run for office, but his name recognition might not be enough against Delaware’s sole member of the U.S. House of Representatives Republican Mike Castle, who is also considering a run.  

Barbara Mikulski (D, MD)

Barbara Mikulski won nearly two thirds of the votes during her latest election in 2004.  Republicans are only going to throw up token opposition in this race.  Mikulski hasn’t lost an election since 1974, and she won’t next year either.

Charles Schumer (D, NY)

Another incumbent to face only token opposition is going to be Charles Schumer.  New York Republicans will be focusing all of their resources at ousting Junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand who took over Hillary Clinton’s seat when Clinton was sworn in as Obama’s Secretary of State.  Schumer easily wins a third term.

Coming up next, New England…

Mel Martinez (R, FL)

Mel Martinez won his only term in the Senate by just over 1% in 2004. He has announced that he will not be seeking a second term. This gives the Democrats a good chance at an open seat in the swing state of Florida.  This could become a crowded field, with 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats already announcing intentions to run, with a handful of potential candidates of both parties.  Polling conducted in January after Martinez announced his retirement indicate no clear favorite in either party with three quarters of Democratic likely voters undecided.  Keep an eye on this one. 

Richard Burr (R, NC)

In 2005, Burr succeeded John Edwards as North Carolina’s Junior Senator. Potential Democratic opponents include North Carolina’s Attorney General Roy Cooper, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and forme State Senator Cal Cunningham.  Of these, Cooper appears to be the early favorite, and may give Burr a close race in a state that narrowly voted for President Obama in 2008.

Johnny Isakson (R, GA)

In 2004, Isakson won his first Senate term in a landslide against Democrat Denise Majette.  Georgia’s Attorney General Thurbert Baker, and Congressman Jim Marshall may challenge Isakson, but he should easily win reelection.

Jim DeMint (R, SC)

Jim DeMint will be seeking a second term in 2010.  He is a popular Senator, and no Democrats have announced a challenge.  They say you have to pick your battles, and this is one that the Democrats can’t win.  DeMint in a landslide.

Coming up next, the Mid-Atlantic…