Andrew’s Analytics

In 2010, two term Governor of South Dakota Mike Rounds will not be running for reelection due to term limits. This opens the race up. The early Republican front runner is Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard. Earlier this week, he announced his resignation from his position as executive director for The Children Home’s society.  Daugaard, who has been Lieutenant Governor since 2003, wants to focus his energy onthe campaign. Other Republicans include state senator and Sioux Falls city councilman Dave Knudson and Brookings mayor Scott Munsterman.

No Democrats have announced their candidacy yet, but rumors have been floating around that three term Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is considering a run. She is also rumored to be considering a challenge to U.S. Senator John Thune when his term is up for reelection next year, but would probably have a better chance at entering a race without an incumbent. Herseth Sandlin is a prominent member of the Blue Dog Coalition in the House, and her more moderate views appeal to the South Dakota electorate. As the biggest Democratic name in the state, if she enters the gubernatorial race, the nomination is hers. The general election will be a tossup. If she decides to sit this race out, it will surely stay in Republican hands.

In a move that isn’t all that surprising, Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced that he will seek to replace retiring U.S. Senator Mel Martinez next year instead of trying to retain the Governor’s Mansion. Crist may face a crowded Republican primary field, including Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio, former U.S. Senator Bob Smith, and physician Marion Thorpe. Former Governor Jeb Bush has declined to run for the open seat, making Crist the candidate with the best name recognition.

Over the last several months, Crist has done a few things to upset the conservative GOP base. Crist appeared with President Barack Obama at a Fort Myers town hall meeting, urging bipartisanship to get through the economic rough times we are going through. Unlike several Republican governors, he supported the President’s stimulus plan, and didn’t do any grandstanding against taking federal money. He also vetoed several budget cuts that the Republican legislature passed. Despite all of this, his approval rating among Republicans remains high, and he should cruise to an easy primary victory.

On the Democratic side, Kendrick Meek, state Senator Dan Gelber, and North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns will be battling it out for the nomination. Seven term Congressman Robert Wexler declined to run, and will continue to represent Florida’s 19th district in the House. Kendrick Meek appears to be the early favorite for the nomination, but most Democratic voters are undecided.

Regardless of who the Democrats nominate, this is Crist’s race to lose. The incidents mentioned above that the conservatives were against are the same things that endear him to the moderates that helped swing Florida blue for President Obama. Early polling puts him up by over 20 points above both Meeks and Gelber. Short of some huge unexpected event, that’s too big of a lead to overcome against someone with the high profile name and bankroll the Crist has.

Longtime Minnesota House DFL leader Matt Entenza announced his candidacy for the governorship of Minnesota today in Worthington. Entenza joins a very crowded Democratic field to try to become the state’s next chief executive. One of the top contenders for the Democratic nomination is former U.S. Senator and department store heir Mark Dayton. Others include state senators Tom Bakk and John Marty and Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner. Dayton and Entenza may do well in a primary among Democratic voters, but would be seen as to partisan in a general election in a state that hasn’t had a Democratic governor since Rudy Perpich retired in 1991. 

On the Republican side, all potential candidates are waiting until current Governor Tim Pawlenty announces his plans for 2010. If Pawlenty wants the nomination, it’s his, but he may have his eyes on a higher prize. After being overlooked in favor of Sarah Palin for the VP spot on the Republican ticket, Pawlenty is one of several young anti-tax Republican Governors who will be serious contenders to challenge Obama. Pawlenty sits this one out, and gears up for a run at the White House. Without him, it’s a wide open race on both sides of the aisle.

San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsome threw his hat in the ring to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger as the 39th Governor of California earlier today. What made this announcement unique, was the media with which it was delivered. In a move that our children will come to see as standard operating procedure, Newsom announced his bid on Twitter, Facebook and Youtube. President Obama started this trend last year during his campaign, where he raised record amounts of money over the internet. This is a brilliant move by the youngest mayor that San Francisco has seen in over a century.  What better way to cheaply reach millions of voters, who will see him as being a part of the new generation of politicians who are starting to run our country. Part of John McCain’s downfall last November wasn’t just his age, but it was the fact that he seemed old.  This has happened several times in Presidential races, with Bill Clinton going up against George H.W. Bush in 1992, and a youthful looking John F. Kennedy edging out Richard Nixon for the White House in 1960.

All that being said, Newsom still faces an uphill climb. He may be seen as too divisive for voters in the Democratic primary next June. Newsom has always been very supportive of same sex marriage, and as mayor in 2004, ordered San Francisco city clerks to issue marriage licenses to same sex couples. He also was an outspoken opponent of Proposition 8 last year, which amended the California Constitution to outlaw same sex marriage. He is joining a potentially crowded Democratic field, with former Governor Jerry Brown, and Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, and possibly U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. Current polling puts Feinstein at the top of the pack, with Brown slightly ahead of Newsom. With the primary 14 months away, and the high number of undecideds, it’s anyone’s race. For the general election, most polls put the Democrat ahead by 8 to 10 points, but again with a high number of undecideds. 

Regardless of if he wins or loses, Newsom will refine a campaign technique that Obama started. As we move into the second decade of the 21st century, look for more and more candidates to follow Newsom by using the internet to reach voters.

In the saga that doesn’t seem to end, Norm Coleman filed an appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court today, claiming that voters equal protection was violated due to differing standards for accepting absentee ballots in different counties across the state. This is the same Norm Coleman that called on challenger Al Franken to concede on election night when the initial machine count indicated Coleman was up by a handful of votes. Minnesota law calls for a hand recount in such circumstances. Coleman will be reiterating the same arguments that were rejected by a three judge panel earlier this month. This is a very valuable seat, with the Democrats holding a 58-41 advantage in the Senate (counting Lieberman and Sanders).  A Franken victory pushes the margin to almost a filibuster proof Senate, with the Democrats needing only one Republican vote to invoke cloture. For the Republicans, they want to keep this seat empty as long as possible.

Franken on the other hand, appears poised to get to work. The former Saturday Night Live star has begun to assemble his staff, naming Alana Peterson as his state director. This is clearly a move by Franken to get public support on his side. Most Minnesotans want this mess to end, and with Franken having a staff in place, it makes it appear that Coleman is obstructing. Don’t count on it to work. Coleman will drag this out as long as possible, but in the end, Franken will come out on top. And Coleman’s political career will be over.

A three judge panel in Minnesota decided in Al Franken’s favor today, setting the stage for an appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court. Former Senator Norm Coleman, who filed the lawsuit in January, was seeking to overturn the decision of the state canvassing board by trying to get thousands of additional absentee ballots counted in the close race. Unfortunately for Coleman, the court only allowed 351 ballots to be added, and Frankens margin inched up to 312 votes. The court ruled that “The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately.” 

Both sides took to cyberspace last week to plead their cases to web surfers. The state DFL party has launched a site called giveitupnorm.com, urging Coleman to concede and not appeal the trial court’s decision. On the Republican side, there is an online petition on mngop.com to convince Coleman to “keep on fighting”, claiming that, in contrast to the court’s ruling, every legal vote has not yet been counted. I’m sure that most people have already made up their mind, as to whether Coleman should concede, or keep appealing. A partisan website is not going to change a lot of minds on either side. This one’s going into double overtime, but Franken holds the edge.

In an election that’s been dragging on for five months now, Al Franken has widened his lead to an apparently insurmountable margin of 312, putting Coleman’s chances in the hands of a higher court. The trial court ruled that 351 previously rejected ballots should have been counted. When these were tallied up, Franken got 198 votes to Coleman’s 111, adding 87 to Franken’s razor thin margin. 42 of these votes were cast for other candidates, presumably with the majority of these going to Independence Party candidate, former Senator Dean Barkley. The three judge panel will issue a final ruling in the coming days, which at this point, almost surely will be in favor of Franken. Coleman has vowed an appeal, so if the Minnesota Supreme Court hears the appeal, don’t expect Amy Klobuchar to have a Senate colleague just yet. 

One man who I think wants this whole thing to just go away is Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. He is put in the unenviable spot of signing the election certificate of the eventual winner, and this looks like a no win situation for him. Pawlenty was on a lot of people’s list (including mine) of potential Republican Vice Presidential nominees, with that slot eventually going to Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. He is likely considering a challenge to President Obama in 2012, but how he handles this high profile story may affect his chances. Minnesota law states that an election certificate shall not be issued until the case is settled in court if necessary. This obviously includes the Minnesota Supreme Court, but legal experts differ on the question of a potential federal case. Election law has always been under the jurisdiction of the state, and federal courts rarely intervene (with the notable exception Bush v. Gore). If the state case gets settled in Franken’s favor, and the federal courts decide to take up the case, does Pawlenty issue an election certificate, and upset the people who may be nominating him for the promotion of a lifetime, or does he wait until the federal case is settled, thus alienating the electorate at large who would need to take the next step after the nomination?

One man who may be able to save Pawlenty from this dilemma is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  According to Article 1 Section 5 of the U.S Constitution,  ”Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members, and a Majority of each shall constitute a Quorum to do Business; ” If Reid would organize his caucus, they could seat Franken, but Reid hasn’t ever done anything to upset the Republican minority. Don’t expect him to go out on a limb with this one. I think we’ll be waiting a while to see the end of this one.

Yesterday’s special election in New York’s 20th Congressional district is too close to call.  At the end of the night, Democratic nominee Scott Murphy held a slim lead over his GOP counterpart Jim Tedisco by 65 votes.  There are thousands of absentee ballots that have not yet been counted.  These ballots must be received by April 7 for domestic ballots, and April 13 for overseas (including military) ballots. Currently, the Democrats have a 76 seat advantage in the House, so as far as the numbers go, this doesn’t mean all that much.  Will the winning party be able to carry the symbolism of this victory into the next election cycle? Probably not. If Tedisco ends up on top, the Democrats still have two more special elections to fill seats vacated by Obama apointees, Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, and Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis.  The last time either of these districts elected a Republican was in 1994. If Murphy gets the nod, people he will blend in with the other 254 Democrats in the House, and the Republicans will have plenty of other opportunities to pick up electoral ground. This will be a symbolic victory for the winner, but it will be short lived.

Is the 2008 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota about ready to be decided? If the decision of the three judge panel that is hearing Norm Coleman’s lawsuit stands, it appears that Al Franken will be sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota.  The panel ruled that there are some absentee ballots that may need to be counted. These ballots were erroneously rejected during the initial count, as well as the recount that followed.  The problem for Coleman is that there will be less than 400 ballots added to the recount totals.  These ballots have remained sealed in the absentee ballot envelope since the voter turned it in, meaning the results of these ballots is currently unknown. Franken currently holds a 225 vote lead, which means that Coleman will need to take over three quarters of the newly accepted ballots. Nearly half of the total ballots come from three counties that Franken won handily (Hennepin, Ramsey, and St. Louis). The chances that these ballots contain over 300 votes for Coleman are very slim, but this isn’t the end of the road for Coleman. An appeal to the Minnesota Supreme Court is likely, and it is possible that Coleman will take his case to federal court. When it’s all said and done, Franken should come out on top, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for him to be sworn in.

                     vs.        

Kirsten Gillibrand beat Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006, riding a wave that gave Democrats control of the House after 12 years of Republican rule. She won reelection by a landslide in 2008, but her appointment to the Senate opens up this district to a special election on March 31, 2009. Jim Tedisco, the State Assembly minority leader, is on the Republican ticket. Tedisco has been in the Assembly since 1983. His opponent is Democrat Scott Murphy, a businessman and was Deputy Chief of Staff for former Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan.

Most people are looking at this race as an early referendum on Obama’s first 60 days as President. I disagree with this analysis. This is a district that is mostly white, and mostly rural, bordering three New England States. This is hardly a representative sample of our countries population. That being said, watch for the winner to run with that, while the loser downplays any national ramifications.

In early February, Murphy was down by 21 points according to a Public Opinion Strategies poll, but has steadily gained ground, and as of March 26, held a 4 point lead according to Siena Research Institute, still within the margin of error. This one could go either way.

Coming up next, more on the 20th…