Andrew’s Analytics

The Democrats lost a Senate seat last night that they have held since 1953, as Scott Brown beat Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election to finish the term that the late  Ted Kennedy was elected to in 2006. The big story of this election seems to be the new 59-41 split in the Senate denies the Democrats a “filibuster-proof” supermajortiy. The Democrats in the Senate, however, haven’t been united on hardly anything, so that may not be the long term effect of this election.  Does this election mean bad news for the Democrats in November?

It very well may.  Special elections generally have low turnout.  Indeed, Brown garnered only a few thousand more votes than John McCain did in Massachusetts in 2008, while losing to Obama in a landslide.  What this says to me is that the Republicans did a better job of getting out the vote.  Fifteen months ago, Americans voted for change, and 1 year into Obama’s presidency, we are still fighting two wars, prisoners are still being held at Guantanamo, and unemployment is still high.  If the Democrats can’t unite behind health care reform, they may be in trouble.  With Dodd and Dorgan retiring this year, and Harry Reid’s popularity in Nevada waning, the Democrats may lose a seat or two.  41 Democratic seats are not up for grabs this year, so their majority should be safe, but if the healthcare falls through, look for frustrated Democrats to stay home in November, with the Republicans possibly further chipping away at the Democratic Senate majority.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty announced that he will not run for a third term next year, creating speculation about a possible Presidential bid in 2012. In a KSTP poll taken May 20, Pawlenty led all potential Democratic challengers. With him out of the picture, the race is wide open. So far, 8 Democrats have announced a run, including former Senator Mark Dayton, former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, and State Senator John Marty. There is also speculation that Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, and St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman will join the race.

So far, all Republicans were deferring to Pawlenty, but look for a crowded field on the right side of the ballot as well. Potentail candidates are House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, U.S. Representative Michelle Bachmann, and former Senator Norm Coleman, who just yesterday appealed last year’s election results to the Minnesota Supreme Court.

This one looks to be an ugly fight on both sides for the primary, and that will continue to the general election. With the heavy favorite out of the race, this may be a good chance for the DFL to pick up a governor’s mansion that they haven’t held since 1991.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve noticed a large increase in the hits my website is getting. I would like to welcome all of the new readers, and would like to thank you for taking the time to read my take on our state of affairs. I would also like to invite anyone who feels like it to post a comment and introduce yourself, or feel free to email me at andrewfirst.com. One of the themes of this site is that our government should be, to use a cliche, of the people, by the people and for the people. We can’t forget that the people we send to Washington, or Madison, or Pierre, or Salem are hired by us to govern. We have the power to send them to the capital, and we also have the power to oust them if they don’t meet our needs. I think it’s important for all citizens to have a voice, and I would love to hear yours.

Thanks for reading,

Andrew